Travel restrictions and capacity constraints reduce fuel economy of passenger aviation and rail However, energy intensity is likely to be significantly reduced by shifts from aviation to rail, little changed by shifts from aviation to cars and increased by shifts from rail to cars. Potential trends in long-distance modal shifts are still emerging. A European survey showed similar splits: 50% by car, 30% by plane, and 10% by train. ![]() According to one US survey in May, around 60% of respondents intended to travel more by car (compared with around 35% by plane), up from 33% in a comparable 2018 survey (60% by plane). In other countries, however, at least some of the domestic aviation trips are likely to be replaced by car travel. In China, which has a large potential to shift domestic flights to high-speed rail, rail stimulus announcements in the first half of 2020 are so significant they have already buoyed steel demand there. In May, the French government announced that bailouts for Air France would be contingent on the national carrier ceasing to offer short-haul domestic flights when rail presents a viable alternative (trips that take less than two hours and 30 minutes). Some countries have also announced policies that may help accelerate a shift from air to rail in the medium to long term. Several night train routes are emerging (or re-emerging) in Europe, typically on ideal overnight routes of around 10 to 16 hours. Earlier IEA analysis had already shown that around 14% of all flights could be competitively shifted to high-speed rail. Higher demand for rail, and lower-than-expected growth in aviation would see an additional 800 high-speed trains in operation in Europe within the next decade, and nearly 200 fewer planes required globally. Therefore, a net shift from aviation to rail, resulting from lower falls in demand for rail than for aviation, would substantially reduce energy use and emissions.Ĭovid-19 could accelerate the shift from air to rail travel in Europe and China. On average, trains are at least 12 times more energy efficient per passenger than air travel. An estimated USD 45 billion to USD 60 billion in revenue losses are expected in 2020, nearly all from Asia (53%) and Europe (44%) where there are significant passenger rail services. Another projection from September by the consultancy SCI Verkehr estimates a 36% drop from 2019. Global passenger rail demand for 2020 is expected to decline by up to 30% compared to 2019 according to scenarios developed by the International Union of Railways (as of July 2020). Note: A shift from aviation to cars may lead to higher or similar energy intensity, depending on the trip. Lower demand for long-distance travel, leading to the retirements of some of the least efficient planes, trains and ships. Government stimulus spending targets more efficient vehicles and modes of inter-city transport. Higher shares of the aviation fleet used for cargo versus passenger flights.Įconomic stimulus for airlines and automotive companies is not tied to energy efficiency improvements, leading to rebounds in less efficient transport.Ĭontinuing low fuel prices encourage the purchase of less efficient vehicles and fuels. Modal shifts in freight transport from sea to inter-continental rail. ![]() Modal shifts in passenger transport, from aviation to rail. ![]() Modal shifts in passenger transport, from aviation to cars. Lower load factors in passenger aviation and rail transport, leading to higher energy use per passenger. Potential effect on energy intensity improvement Crisis-induced factors that could affect long-distance transport energy intensity Type of effect
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